Sharp Bets
+EV picks · Pinnacle vs. 7 Swedish-licensed bookmakers

Swedish odds, checked against Pinnacle.
Every pick on the record.

Twice a day, the bot compares 7 licensed bookmakers with Pinnacle's line and posts only the prices that beat the fair odds. Then it publishes how each one did.

See the live board

Top picks right now

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Track Record

Full breakdown →

Questions

All questions →
What is a +EV bet?

A bet where the odds are better than the true chance of winning justifies, so it makes money on average over many bets. Any single bet can still lose.

How are the picks found?

Each scan compares seven Swedish-licensed bookmakers with Pinnacle's line, removes Pinnacle's margin with Shin's method to get the fair odds, and posts only the prices that beat them by enough.

If it's +EV, why does it still lose?

Because a +EV bet is one that is priced too generously, not one that wins. Over a short run most of the result is luck, which is why the Track Record measures closing line value and not just wins.

How do I know the record is real?

Every pick is logged the moment it is sent, the closing line is captured before kickoff, and results are graded from official scores.

Can bookmakers limit me?

Yes. Bookmakers can restrict or close accounts that win consistently, so don't rely on any single account.

Check any bet with the EV calculator →

Rolling 3-day window

Live Board

Every live pick, rechecked every 2 hours until kickoff. A struck-through bookmaker has fallen below the edge threshold: it stays on the board, just marked. Took one? Hit + Log to add it to My Bets. Odds moved? Hit Price? to check your edge.

Public · logged before kickoff

Track Record

Every pick is logged the moment it's sent, the closing line is captured just before kickoff, and finished matches are graded from official scores — nothing is typed in by hand. Your personal record lives under My Bets.

Opt-in · ranked by closing-line value

Leaderboard

Who's beating the closing line. Only bets logged with + Log at the board's price, with a closing line the bot captured, count — so nobody can type their way up the table. It ranks CLV rather than profit because a few lucky results can't fake it.

Public profile · verified bets only

Profile

Private to your account

My Bets

Log what you actually placed and at what price — your own record, measured the same way the channel measures its own.

The method

How It Works

No black box — the whole approach in three steps, plus every term you'll see on the site.

01

Compare

Every scan checks 7 Swedish-licensed bookmakers against Pinnacle's own line — the price the sharp market treats as the reference.

02

Fair odds

Pinnacle's odds include a margin. Shin's method removes it to get the fair probability, and so the fair odds.

03

Alert

Only picks that beat the fair odds by more than the edge threshold reach the board, with Kelly-sized stakes in units.

Longer reads: What is +EV betting? · Closing line value explained · Today's value bets

Glossary

Ref odds
Pinnacle's own price for this outcome — the sharp reference line every bookmaker is compared against.
Fair odds
Pinnacle's odds with its margin removed: what the bet is really worth.
EV
Expected value — how much a bet is expected to return per unit staked if the true probability holds, as a percentage.
CLV
Closing line value — how the price you took compares to the line right before kickoff. On My Bets it's your odds ÷ closing odds − 1.
Units
Stake size scaled to the edge via the Kelly criterion at half-Kelly, in units rather than currency. Set what a unit is worth in Settings to see it in money.
ROI
Profit divided by the total staked on decided bets (wins and losses). Pushes and pending bets are left out.
Odds Down
Pinnacle's price has fallen since the pick was first found — a sign that sharp money is moving onto that side.
Golden
This pick's edge has grown on every single recheck since it was found — a live, strengthening edge.
Price check
Odds move between a scan and your click. Type the odds you actually see and the site recalculates your edge against the same fair odds.
Verified bet
A bet logged with + Log at the board's exact price, whose closing line was captured by the bot. Editing its odds or closing price removes the badge.
Luck meter
Compares your real profit with what your closing-line value says you should have made, plus the normal range of luck around that. It tells you whether a hot or cold streak is just variance.
18+ · Play safe

Responsible gambling

Positive expected value is not guaranteed profit. Even a real edge has long losing runs, and betting should never be a way to earn a living or fix money problems.

Ground rules

Only stake money you can afford to lose. Decide your limits before you start, not while you're on a losing run. Never chase losses, and take regular breaks. If betting stops being fun, stop.

Use the tools here

In Settings you can set a weekly stake limit in units; My Bets warns you as you approach it and when you pass it. The luck meter on My Bets shows how much of a bad week is plain variance — which is the point at which many people start chasing.

Get help in Sweden

Stödlinjen is the national gambling helpline — free, confidential, and open to players and their families: 020-819 100 · stodlinjen.se.

Spelpaus.se lets you block yourself from every Swedish-licensed gambling company at once, for as long as you choose: spelpaus.se.

What this site is

Sharp Bets finds prices that look too generous compared with the sharpest market. It doesn't take deposits, place bets or hold money, and nothing here is financial advice. Only ever use operators licensed in your country.

Your data

Privacy

What this site stores about you, in plain language.

If you just browse

No cookies, no ads, no third-party scripts and no third-party requests: even the fonts are served from this site. The site counts visits without tracking you: a one-way hash of your IP address and browser, mixed with a random value that is deleted after a day, is used only to count how many different people came that day. It can't be reversed or matched from one day to the next, and your IP address is never stored. The site also keeps plain totals of button clicks and of where a link came from (the source tag in a link, for example ?src=tg). None of this is counted if your browser sends Do Not Track or Global Privacy Control. Your filters, unit size, language and the link's source tag are kept in your own browser only.

If you create an account

We store your username, a hashed password (the password itself is never stored and can't be read back), your settings (filters, unit size, alert choices, language) and the bets you choose to log: event, market, book, odds, stake, result and dates, plus the source tag of the link that brought you here, if it had one. No email, no phone number, no real name.

Push alerts

If you turn alerts on, your browser gives us an anonymous push address for that device. We use it only to send the alerts you chose, and delete it when you turn alerts off or delete your account.

Public profiles

Off by default. If you switch it on, your username and the aggregate closing-line numbers of your verified bets appear on the leaderboard and a profile page. Individual bets, stakes and events are never shown. You can switch it off any time.

Cookies

One cookie, sb_session, keeps you signed in for up to 30 days. It's strictly necessary for being logged in and is not used for tracking.

Your control

Under My Bets → Account you can export all your bets as a CSV at any time, change your password, or delete your account — which permanently deletes every bet, setting and push address.

Passwords

Because there's no email on file, there's no password reset. If you forget your password you'll need to create a new account.

What this site is not

It doesn't place bets, connect to bookmakers, or hold money. My Bets is a notebook for your own records. Nothing here is financial advice.

Who runs this site

The operator's details are on the About page. They are responsible for the personal data described here.

Contact

Questions or deletion requests: use the contact details on the About page.

Sign in

We store your username, a hashed password, your settings, the bets you log and the source tag of the link that brought you, if it had one. Privacy

Settings

Show me

Only picks that match appear on the Live Board and the home page. Leave everything unticked to see all of them.

Bookmakers I have accounts with
Odds range
Markets
Sports
Money

Say what one unit is worth and stakes and profit also show in money. Leave it empty to stay in units.

Alerts
Public profile