Sharp Bets
Value bets for Swedish bookmakers

Stop betting on gut feeling.
Bet on the maths.

Around the clock, Sharp Bets compares 14 licensed bookmakers with Pinnacle, the bookmaker the pros follow, and posts only the prices that beat the fair odds. Then it publishes how each one did.

See the record

We compare the odds at

  • Svenska Spel
  • ATG
  • Unibet
  • Betsson
  • LeoVegas
  • NordicBet
  • Mr Green
  • Expekt
  • Coolbet
  • 888sport
  • BetMGM
  • Betinia
  • Hajper
  • Campobet
Most bettors lose over time

Stop betting like everyone else

In 2025 the bookmakers licensed in Sweden kept 28.2 billion kronor of what players staked. Source: Spelinspektionen

Four common ways to bet, and why they lose:

The statistics researcher

You check corners and form over the last five games. The bookmaker's model has thousands of matches and the same injury news, only faster.

The accumulator builder

You build a five-game accumulator at 1.40 each. With 6% margin per game you get back about 75% of a fair price.

The favourite backer

You back the favourite at 1.25. Then you have to win 80% of the time just to break even.

The gut-feeling bettor

You back your own team, or whatever feels right. The prices are set without feelings.

Sharp Bets does the opposite.

It doesn't try to guess who wins. It looks for prices that are wrong: fewer bets, only when a Swedish bookmaker pays more than the market's sharpest price.

Why most bettors lose, and what works instead →

The method

How Sharp Bets works

Three steps from the bookmakers' prices to a pick you can check afterwards.

01

We compare every price

The system keeps fetching every bookmaker's latest odds and Pinnacle's line, more often the closer a game gets to the start.

02

We work out the fair odds

Pinnacle's margin is removed with Shin's method to get the fair chance. A price only becomes a pick if it beats the fair odds by at least 2%.

03

You bet and follow up

No spreadsheet: My Bets shows whether you beat the closing line, what you've made, and how much of it was luck.

150M+odds compared every month
12sports, from football to MMA
2 minbetween checks close to the start
Free account

What you get

Everything on this page, every day, for the bookmakers you use.

Today's picks

Every pick with its odds, bookmaker and edge, checked until the start.

Your filters

The bookmakers you use, your sports and your odds.

Alerts

The moment a pick that fits your filters appears.

No affiliate links

Sharp Bets earns nothing from your betting.

Transparency

Data and methodology

What is covered, and what to keep in mind before you bet.

Sports covered

Football, ice hockey, tennis, basketball, handball, American football, baseball, MMA, boxing, rugby, cricket and Aussie rules. Only competitions with games coming up are checked.

Odds come through The Odds API.

Before you bet

Odds are fetched, not streamed, so a price can move between a check and your click. Always confirm it at the bookmaker before you bet.

+EV means a better price than the market thinks is fair, not a guaranteed win. Single bets still lose often.

The full method, step by step →

Questions

All questions →
What is a +EV bet?

A bet where the odds are better than the true chance of winning justifies, so it makes money on average over many bets. Any single bet can still lose.

Is it really free? What's the catch?

Yes, it's free: no card and no email needed. There's no catch in the picks either, because Sharp Bets has no affiliate links and earns nothing from your betting. A paid version with extra tools may come later; the free account and the open record stay.

How is Sharp Bets different from tipster services?

Tipsters give their opinion on who will win. Sharp Bets compares prices: a pick is only posted when a Swedish bookmaker pays more than the fair odds from Pinnacle's line, and every pick is published with its time, closing line and result, losses included.

How do I know the record is real?

Every pick is logged the moment it is sent and the closing line is captured before kickoff. Most results are graded automatically from official score feeds. Some older results were looked up by hand from public sources, each with its source recorded.

Do I need accounts at all 14 bookmakers?

No. Choose the bookmakers you use under My filters and you only see picks you can actually bet. More bookmakers give more picks, but a few are enough to start.

If it's +EV, why can it still lose?

Because a +EV bet is one that is priced too generously, not one that wins. Over a short run most of the result is luck, which is why the Track Record measures closing line value and not just wins.

Check any bet with the EV calculator →

See today's picks

A free account, no card, no email. The live board updates around the clock.

Overview

Live Board · for members

The live board is for members

A free account, no email needed. Sharp Bets is scanning 14 Swedish-licensed bookmakers against Pinnacle right now.

The totals stay open to everyone: average CLV, ROI and results by sport and bookmaker. See the record

14 Swedish-licensed bookmakers vs Pinnacle

Odds comparison

The latest price at every Swedish bookmaker for each game Sharp Bets scans, next to Pinnacle's fair odds. Find the best price for the bet you already want, whether or not it's a pick.

Pinnacle's line, rescanned all the time

Odds moves

Where the sharp line has moved since we first saw it. When Pinnacle's odds fall, money has come in on that side, and Swedish bookmakers that haven't followed yet can still be above the fair odds.

Rolling 3-day window

Live Board

Every live pick, rechecked until kickoff. Took one? Tap + Log and type the odds you got.

Public · logged before kickoff

Track Record

Every pick is logged the moment it's sent and the closing line is captured just before kickoff. Most results are graded automatically from official score feeds. Some older results were looked up by hand from public sources, each with its source recorded. Your personal record lives under My Bets.

Opt-in · ranked by closing-line value

Leaderboard

Who's beating the closing line. Only bets logged with + Log at the board's price, with a closing line captured automatically, count, so nobody can type their way up the table. It ranks CLV rather than profit because a few lucky results can't fake it.

Public profile · verified bets only

Profile

Private to your account

My Bets

Log what you actually placed and at what price: your own record, measured the same way the channel measures its own.

The method

How It Works

No black box: the whole approach in three steps, plus every term you'll see on the site.

01

Compare

Every scan checks 14 Swedish-licensed bookmakers against Pinnacle's own line: the price the sharp market treats as the reference.

02

Fair odds

Pinnacle's odds include a margin. Shin's method removes it to get the fair probability, and so the fair odds.

03

Alert

Only picks that beat the fair odds by more than the edge threshold reach the board, with Kelly-sized stakes in units.

Longer reads: What is +EV betting? · Closing line value explained · What is arbitrage betting? · Sharp money & steam moves explained · Free vs. paid +EV tools · +EV betting in Sweden · Today's value bets

Glossary

Ref odds
Pinnacle's own price for this outcome: the sharp reference line every bookmaker is compared against.
Fair odds
Pinnacle's odds with its margin removed: what the bet is really worth.
EV
Expected value: how much a bet is expected to return per unit staked if the true probability holds, as a percentage.
CLV
Closing line value: how the price you took compares to the line right before kickoff. On My Bets it's your odds ÷ closing odds − 1.
Units
Stake size scaled to the edge via the Kelly criterion, half Kelly unless you choose otherwise in Settings, in units rather than currency. Set what a unit is worth in Settings to see it in money.
ROI
Profit divided by the total staked on decided bets (wins and losses). Pushes and pending bets are left out.
Odds Down
Pinnacle's price has fallen since the pick was first found, a sign that sharp money is moving onto that side.
Golden
This pick's edge has grown on every single recheck since it was found: a live, strengthening edge.
Wide line
Pinnacle's margin on this market is above 5%, so it is less sure of its price and the fair odds are less certain than usual. The pick and its stake are not changed.
Price check
Odds move between a scan and your click. When you log a bet, type the odds you actually got and the site recalculates your edge against the same fair odds.
How fast prices go
Often within minutes. In mid-October 2026, about one in three bookmaker prices on the board had fallen below the edge threshold by the next check, 2 to 15 minutes later. Turn on alerts, and check the price before you bet: the record measures every pick at the price first seen, which you won't always get.
Verified bet
A bet logged with + Log from the board, whose closing line was captured automatically. Changing its odds by more than 5% from the board price, moving it to a bookmaker that didn't have the same pick at that price, or editing its closing price, removes the badge. Verified figures always use the board price or lower.
Luck meter
Compares your real profit with what your closing-line value says you should have made, plus the normal range of luck around that. It tells you whether a hot or cold streak is just variance.
18+ · Play safe

Responsible gambling

Positive expected value is not guaranteed profit. Even a real edge has long losing runs, and betting should never be a way to earn a living or fix money problems.

Ground rules

Only stake money you can afford to lose. Decide your limits before you start, not while you're on a losing run. Never chase losses, and take regular breaks. If betting stops being fun, stop.

Use the tools here

In Settings you can set a weekly stake limit in units; My Bets warns you as you approach it and when you pass it. The luck meter on My Bets shows how much of a bad week is plain variance, which is the point at which many people start chasing.

Get help in Sweden

Stödlinjen is the national gambling helpline, free, confidential, and open to players and their families: 020-819 100 · stodlinjen.se.

Spelpaus.se lets you block yourself from every Swedish-licensed gambling company at once, for as long as you choose: spelpaus.se.

What this site is

Sharp Bets finds prices that look too generous compared with the sharpest market. It doesn't take deposits, place bets or hold money, and nothing here is financial advice. Only ever use operators licensed in your country.

Sign in

We store your username, a hashed password, your settings, the bets you log and the source tag of the link that brought you, if it had one. Privacy

Settings

Show me

Only picks that match appear on the Live Board and the home page. Leave everything unticked to see all of them.

Quick choice

Strict selection: odds 1.40 to 2.90, at least a 3% edge and no wide lines. Fewer picks, with a bigger edge against the closing line. It is still being tested; the Track Record covers every pick.

Bookmakers I have accounts with
Odds range
Markets
Sports
Appearance

Auto follows your device. The choice is remembered on this device only.

Money

Say what one unit is worth and stakes and profit also show in money. Leave it empty to stay in units.

In your currency, so a suggested 136 kr shows as 135 or 140, what you'd actually bet. Needs a unit value above.

Half Kelly is the default. Quarter Kelly halves every suggested stake and is gentler on swings, since the fair odds are an estimate. The public record always uses half Kelly.

Alerts
Public profile