What the simulator shows
Each bet is won with the probability the edge implies: at odds of 2.00 and a 3% edge that is 51.5%. The simulator plays your bets thousands of times with random outcomes and shows where the results land.
The middle line is the typical result. The bands show the range most runs fall in. Everything outside them is luck too, only rarer.
Why a small sample proves almost nothing
Over a hundred bets near even money, results can easily land ten units away from what the edge predicts. A real edge ends down surprisingly often, and a bettor with no edge at all can be up.
That's why a few weeks of results say little about a tipster, a tool or yourself, in either direction.
What to look at instead
Closing line value shows up much sooner than profit, because every bet has one, win or lose. If your prices beat the closing line over a few hundred bets, the edge is likely real, whatever the short-term results say.
Sharp Bets publishes every pick with its closing line on the public record for exactly this reason.