Who it suits
- People who are patient. The edge shows over hundreds of bets, not over a weekend.
- People who are comfortable with odds and percentages, or happy to learn.
- People who can act during the day. Prices move within minutes or hours, so a pick is only worth taking while the price is still there.
- People who keep a record of every bet, losses included.
- People who bet with money they can afford to lose, and treat it that way.
Who it's not for
- Anyone who needs the money. Results swing too much to pay bills from, even with a real edge.
- Anyone who wants a fast result. A month says almost nothing.
- Anyone who tends to chase losses or raise stakes after a bad week.
- Anyone who bets mainly for the excitement. +EV betting is mostly routine: checking prices, logging bets, waiting.
If betting has stopped being fun, or you're spending more than you planned, Spelpaus lets you exclude yourself from every Swedish-licensed bookmaker, and Stödlinjen offers free, anonymous support.
The time it takes
Picks appear around the clock, and Sharp Bets rechecks games starting soon every 2 minutes. You don't need to watch all day: turning on alerts and checking a few times a day is enough to take the picks that suit you. What matters is acting while the price is still there, and logging each bet when you place it.
Expect the first weeks to take longer, while you open accounts, set your bookmakers and stake size, and get used to checking the price before you bet.
A sensible budget
Decide on a bankroll, an amount set aside only for betting, and size every stake from it. Sharp Bets suggests stakes in units, where one unit is 1% of your bankroll, so the same advice works for 1,000 kr or 50,000 kr. You'll also want accounts at several Swedish bookmakers, since the best price moves around between them.
Here is what the numbers look like. Say you stake 20 kr on each of 500 bets, 10,000 kr in total. At the average closing-line value of Sharp Bets' picks, +2.68%, the expected result is about +270 kr. But with the spread of results our picks have, luck alone can move that by about 1,260 kr either way. So after 500 bets you could easily be down, even with a real edge. That's not a flaw in the method; it's what a small edge over a few hundred bets looks like.
You will get limited
Bookmakers cut the maximum stakes of customers who keep beating their prices. If +EV betting works for you, it will happen sooner or later at most of your accounts. It's legal and in their terms, and it's part of the deal; our guide to getting limited explains why and how to make your accounts last longer.
Realistic results
Sharp Bets' picks have an average closing-line value of +2.68% over 4,365 checked picks, and the median edge when a pick is found is 3.05%. That's a few percent per bet, not tens of percent.
It takes around 60 bets before the closing line can tell you whether your bets have an edge, and far more before profit alone can. Our own record is the example: after 4,519 settled picks, ROI is +2.60% with a 95% range of −1.56% to +6.75%, a range that still includes zero. You can check every one of those picks on the Track Record.
Try it without betting first
Before you bet, follow the board for a week or two. Note which picks you would have taken and at what odds, and then see how they closed. If the routine feels like a chore, or the losing days bother you, that's a useful answer too, and it cost you nothing.
Common questions
Do I need a big bankroll for +EV betting?
No. Stakes are sized as a share of your bankroll, so it works with a small one too. What matters more is only betting money you can afford to lose, and having accounts at several bookmakers.
How much time does +EV betting take?
With alerts on, a few checks a day is enough to take the picks that suit you. The first weeks take longer while you set up accounts and get used to the routine.
Can I make a living from +EV betting?
Very few people can. Edges are a few percent per bet, results swing a lot, and bookmakers limit winning accounts. Treat it as a hobby with an edge, not an income.