Where the data comes from
Odds come from The Odds API. The reference is Pinnacle, the bookmaker whose prices the market treats as sharpest. They are compared with seven Swedish-licensed bookmakers: Unibet, NordicBet, LeoVegas, Mr Green, Hajper, Svenska Spel and Campobet.
From odds to fair odds
Every bookmaker builds a margin into its odds, so the implied chances of all outcomes add up to more than 100%. We remove Pinnacle's margin with Shin's method, which also corrects the way margins tend to hide in the long shots (the favourite-longshot bias). What's left is an estimate of each outcome's fair probability; fair odds are 1 divided by that probability.
What counts as a pick
A price at one of the seven bookmakers becomes a pick when all of these hold: its edge, EV = odds × fair probability − 1, is at least 2%; its odds are between 1.00 and 10.00; the match starts within 72 hours; and the market can be priced from Pinnacle. Those markets are match winner, over/under, handicap, both teams to score, double chance and draw no bet, plus corners and cards for a shortlist of leagues.
How often it looks
A full scan runs at 08:00 and 18:00 (Swedish time). Picks already found are rechecked about every 2 hours until kickoff; a pick whose price falls below the threshold stays on the board with that bookmaker marked, rather than disappearing.
New picks are only found at the scheduled scans, so a price can already have moved when you see it. That is what the price check on each card is for.
Stake sizes
Suggested stakes use the Kelly criterion at 0.5 of full Kelly, expressed in units. One unit is 1% of your bankroll, so the suggestion works whatever your bankroll is. Set what a unit is worth in Settings to see it in money.
Signals
Odds Down means Pinnacle's price on that outcome has fallen since the pick was first found, which is often a sign of sharp money on that side. Golden means the edge has grown on every recheck since the pick was found.
How we measure our own results
Every pick is written to a log when it is sent. About 5 minutes before kickoff the bot fetches Pinnacle's closing price, removes the margin, and compares it with the price originally found: that is the closing-line value (CLV). Finished matches are graded automatically from official scores where a score decides the bet; corners, cards and quarter-lines are left ungraded rather than guessed.
Limits, plainly
Fair probabilities are estimates, not facts. Pinnacle can be wrong, especially in thin markets and at long odds, where small errors matter more. Bookmakers limit or close accounts that win, so an edge may not stay usable. Prices move, and a +EV price can vanish within minutes. Even a real edge produces long losing runs, and nothing on this site guarantees a profit.