What is a +EV bet?
EV means expected value: the average profit of a bet if you could place it over and over. A +EV bet is one where the odds are better than the true chance of winning justifies, so the bet makes money on average. It can still lose any single time.
How does Sharp Bets find them?
Pinnacle is a bookmaker with very small margins whose prices move quickly when sharp bettors act. The bot takes Pinnacle's odds, removes its margin with Shin's method to estimate the fair odds, and compares them with seven Swedish-licensed bookmakers. Anything that beats the fair odds by at least 2% is a pick.
It scans at 08:00 and 18:00 (Swedish time) and rechecks live picks every 2 hours until kickoff.
Which bookmakers are covered?
Unibet, NordicBet, LeoVegas, Mr Green, Hajper, Svenska Spel and Campobet, all Swedish-licensed. Pinnacle is used only as the reference for the fair odds.
If it's +EV, why does it still lose?
Because a +EV bet is not a bet that wins, it is a bet that is priced too generously. An edge of a few percent means most of the outcome is luck over any short run, and even a real edge shows up only over hundreds of bets. That is why the Track Record page measures closing line value, which is far less noisy than wins and losses.
What is closing line value (CLV)?
The closing line is Pinnacle's price just before kickoff, when it is at its sharpest. If the price you took beats it, you got a better price than the market's final opinion, which is the best short-term sign of a real edge. The bot records this 5 minutes before every kickoff.
How do I know the record is real?
Every pick is written to the bot's log the moment it is sent, with a timestamp from before kickoff. The closing line is captured automatically, and results are graded from official scores. Corners, cards and quarter-line handicaps are skipped for grading instead of guessed.
How much should I stake?
Each pick has a suggested stake in units, where one unit is 1% of your bankroll. It comes from the Kelly criterion, cut to 0.5 of the full amount because the fair odds are an estimate. It is a calculation, not advice. You can check any bet yourself in the EV calculator.
The odds changed. What now?
Odds move all the time. Before betting, check the price at your bookmaker. The Price check button on the live board tells you whether the bet is still worth taking at the current odds.
Will bookmakers limit me?
They can. Bookmakers restrict or close accounts that win consistently, and Swedish-licensed ones are no exception. Sharp Bets has no influence on that, so keep it in mind before you rely on any single account.
Is it free? Is it legal?
For now everything on the site is free, and there are no bookmaker affiliate links. Sharp Bets is not a bookmaker: it takes no deposits and places no bets. You must be 18 or older and follow the rules where you live. If gambling stops being fun, help is on the Responsible gambling page.
Contact
Sharp Bets is run by Albert Bengtsson. Contact: email thesharpbetsgroup@gmail.com.