How to read the numbers
Each figure is the average closing-line value: how much better the price was than where Pinnacle's fair odds closed just before the start. The 95% range shows where the true average most likely lies given how many picks there are.
Compare the ranges, not only the averages: when two ranges overlap a lot, the difference between them may just be luck. Sharp Bets has 4,371 checked picks so far, with an overall average of +2.68%.
By sport
Ice hockey: +2.67% on average (95% range +2.14% to +3.20%), 664 picks; Football: +2.48% on average (95% range +2.17% to +2.79%), 2917 picks; Baseball: +2.71% on average (95% range +1.84% to +3.57%), 138 picks; Tennis: +3.85% on average (95% range +2.25% to +5.45%), 137 picks; Basketball: +1.32% on average (95% range +0.25% to +2.39%), 253 picks; American football: +4.24% on average (95% range +2.75% to +5.74%), 142 picks; Handball: too few picks yet (5).
Big, popular sports give smaller edges per bet, because more money and attention keep the soft bookmakers' prices closer to Pinnacle's. Smaller markets can show larger edges, but they also have fewer picks, so their ranges stay wide for longer.
By odds
odds under 1.80: +1.65% on average (95% range +1.17% to +2.13%), 594 picks; odds 1.80–2.49: +2.90% on average (95% range +2.52% to +3.28%), 1493 picks; odds 2.50–3.49: +2.74% on average (95% range +2.21% to +3.26%), 1148 picks; odds 3.50–4.99: +2.19% on average (95% range +1.50% to +2.87%), 877 picks; odds 5.00+: +3.62% on average (95% range +1.58% to +5.65%), 466 picks.
Long odds deserve caution. Results swing much more on them, and even Pinnacle's fair price is less precise for big outsiders, so a large edge on paper at odds of 5.00 or more is less reliable than a modest edge at 2.00.
By timing: how long before the start
found under 2 hours before the start: +2.69% on average (95% range +2.11% to +3.28%), 1363 picks; found 2 to 6 hours before the start: +1.73% on average (95% range +1.19% to +2.27%), 767 picks; found 6 to 24 hours before the start: +2.98% on average (95% range +2.53% to +3.43%), 1524 picks; found 24 hours or more before the start: +2.43% on average (95% range +1.84% to +3.02%), 1484 picks.
Close to the start the market knows the most: line-ups, injuries and the big money are in. A price that still beats Pinnacle then is more likely to be real value. The catch is practical: there is less time to place the bet before the bookmaker adjusts.
Which service to use
Whichever you choose, judge it by its record rather than its promises: every pick on the record, time stamps from before the start, and closing-line value with a range, not a monthly profit figure. Our guide on telling a serious service from a scam lists the questions to ask.
Common questions
Which sport has the most value?
It changes over time. The figures above show the average closing-line value per sport with a 95% range; compare the ranges, not only the averages.
When is the best time to place a value bet?
It's a trade-off. Close to the start the price is more reliable, but there's less time to act. The timing figures above show how picks found at different times have closed.
Are high odds better for value betting?
Not necessarily. Edges look bigger at long odds, but the fair price is less precise and results swing much more, so a modest edge at shorter odds is often more reliable.