Three questions before every bet
- Who is my counterparty?
- What do I know that they don't?
- What might they know that I don't?
If you can't answer the second question, you have an opinion, not an edge. The third is the one most bettors skip.
Who is your counterparty?
At a Swedish bookmaker it is the bookmaker itself: it sets the price and takes your bet. Bookmakers aren't foolish. On big markets their odds are usually close to fair, and the margin in every price means betting at random loses over time.
The sharp market sets the tone. Pinnacle takes large bets from professionals and moves its prices on that money, and many other bookmakers follow the market a little later.
What do you know that they don't?
Being a big fan or having watched every game is rarely the answer: the bookmaker has the same information, and more. A lasting answer is usually a price. Pinnacle's odds with the margin removed show what an outcome is really worth, and when a Swedish bookmaker hasn't moved its price after the market yet, you know something it hasn't acted on. That gap is all +EV betting is.
For example: Pinnacle's fair odds are 2.02 and a Swedish bookmaker offers 2.08. You aren't saying the team will win. You're saying the price is about 3% too high.
What might they know that you don't?
This is the question almost everyone skips. Sometimes the sharp price itself is wrong or late: on small leagues Pinnacle takes small stakes, so a little money can move its line, and an outlier can be a false one. Sometimes the bookmaker knows about an injury, a line-up or the weather before the market has reacted. And sometimes a bookmaker sets a wide margin exactly where it is unsure.
Sharp Bets' answers to it are in the Methodology: a Wide line label when Pinnacle's own margin is large, a price check until the start that takes picks off when the price is gone, and a weekly comparison of big leagues against smaller markets.
Two kinds of proof: at the time and over time
A good price can be measured two ways. At the time: was it better than the sharp market when you bet? Over time: did the market move towards your price before the start, which is closing line value? If an edge only existed because Pinnacle was late, it is gone by the close.
In Sharp Bets' record, Pinnacle said the picks were worth +407 units when they were found and +331 units at the close: 81% of the edge was still there. The actual result swings around the closing line by luck.
Accumulators: the counterparty wins several times over
A common mistake is thinking that each game is likely, so the whole accumulator is likely. Five favourites at 1.30 each win only about 27% of the time together (0.77 to the power of 5), and the bookmaker's margin is taken on every leg.
The short version
Treat the market as sharp, demand a clear reason why the other side is wrong, and check afterwards whether the market agreed. Only bet money you can afford to lose; Spelpaus and the Stödlinjen helpline are there if betting stops being fun.
Common questions
Who is the counterparty when I bet at a bookmaker?
The bookmaker itself. It sets the price, takes your stake and keeps it when you lose, so every bet is a bet against its pricing.
What counts as an edge over the bookmaker?
A price that is better than the fair odds, worked out from a sharp market such as Pinnacle with the margin removed. Knowing a team well is rarely enough, because the bookmaker knows it too.
How do I know if my edge was real?
Check whether the market moved towards your price before the start. Beating the closing line over hundreds of bets is the clearest sign; one winning week is not.